I've been holding AMD through what felt like a great 2025 - up nearly 80% for the year - but these past two weeks have been rough. We've dropped from around $234 to $204, down over 7% in the last month. The market cap fell from $360B to $333B.
What's keeping me up at night? The tariff situation is a mess. Export restrictions could cut $1.5 billion from revenue, and with Trump's tariffs potentially hitting semiconductor imports, costs could spike. We rely entirely on Taiwan for manufacturing. Then there's the AI bubble concern. Some analysts are predicting AMD could crash to $40 if the market turns south, though others see it hitting $500 by 2030. That's a terrifying range.
I want to believe in the long-term AI story. Management projects 35% annual revenue growth and $20 EPS by 2030. But right now, watching the stock slide while tariff headlines pile up, it's hard to stay calm.