The TGT rally feels good on paper, but I can't shake the feeling it’s getting ahead of itself. Up 33% from October lows on what exactly? Revenue is still declining, operating income dropped 19%, and analysts have a consensus target below the current price. That's a red flag I can't ignore. The new CEO's plan sounds promising, but $5B in capex takes years to pay off. Meanwhile, Walmart and Costco are eating their lunch on price. March 3rd earnings could be a rude awakening.
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